There has been a lot of conversation lately about the apparent “decline” in organic supply, especially in export markets.
But is the organic industry really declining, or is it simply evolving?
Demand for organic products continues to grow strongly. Supply, however, is beginning to change shape, and this is particularly evident in the organic vanilla market.
With the implementation of EU Regulation 2018/848, the organic industry has entered a new phase characterised by:
Stricter compliance requirements, moving beyond simple equivalence
Higher expectations for traceability and documentation
Tighter rules around smallholder group certification
The result is greater integrity, more transparency, and stronger trust in the organic label.
But there is another side to this transition.
The same changes also mean higher certification and compliance costs, greater operational complexity, and increased pressure on smallholder supply chains.
We are beginning to see fewer players in some organic value chains, including vanilla. This is not necessarily because demand is shrinking, but because the bar for participating in the organic market has been raised significantly.
One organic exporter recently told me:
“I have spent two years paying for organic certification, but I haven’t sold anything as organic because of constant questions from the certification bodies, who don’t even seem to understand the system either. It’s not worth the investment. Let me concentrate on the conventional market.”
That statement captures a growing concern within the sector.
Certification is intended to create confidence, integrity, and accountability within organic markets. But when the cost and complexity of compliance become too high, especially for exporters working with thousands of smallholder farmers, the system risks pushing legitimate suppliers out of the market altogether.
This raises an important question.
If fewer producers, farmer groups, and exporters are able to meet the new compliance requirements, could stronger regulation eventually create a shortage of certified organic supply?
Or will the current transition simply remove weaker systems, strengthen traceability, and leave behind a smaller but more credible and resilient organic market?
Perhaps what we are witnessing is not the decline of organic agriculture at all.
It may instead be the restructuring of the industry, where participation is becoming more demanding, more professional, and significantly more expensive.
The challenge will be ensuring that higher standards do not unintentionally exclude the very smallholder farmers who have historically formed the backbone of many organic supply chains.
What are you seeing on the ground, especially in organic supply chains? Are we heading towards a shortage, or towards a smaller but stronger organic market?